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Seven years ago, it took just a short phrase to energize the party's annual gathering demonstrating Labour was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. While not precisely stirring rhetoric, the words met with rapturous applause as most of the hall rose in an impromptu ovation.

As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "We are not excluding remain as an option". But context is everything.

In that deeply polarized period of 2018, departing from his agreed text in this way was always going to be seen as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in key constituencies above the Europhile sentiments within Labour. With that single address, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who would stand up for most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he later succeeded.

The Shift of Stance and Settled Debates

Since then, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the EU question was resolved by the previous year’s general election. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” promises that ruled out rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in key seats, despite polling evidence suggests many of them have passed away or shifted opinion.

A Lid That Rattles on the EU

However, it’s now Starmer is now to be an embattled party leader. While EU relations may not be the central crisis of British politics, the cap which was tightly sealed since Brexit is starting to loosen again.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have intensified the rhetoric about the devastation that leaving the EU has caused to the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick to criticize the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and remains his only real achievement.

And yet, the scale of the damage, reportedly has resulted in a national economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, towers over the micro-mitigation so far offered by the government. Starmer’s so-called relationship reset agreed with Brussels last summer offers economic benefits measured in low decimal points.

Cabinet Divergence and Bolder Ideas

The chancellor is one of those attempting to bypass entrenched Home Office resistance to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme by which youths can travel between the UK and the EU for work or study.

David Lammy muses openly regarding the clear advantages of being in a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, last week supported an opposition proposal on customs union membership.

While the Europe minister, the minister in charge of UK-EU relations, now present at every cabinet meeting, insists the firm boundaries are still in place, there are ways these could be bypassed. One idea would be to declaring the commencement of negotiations now for a more ambitious agreement, for inclusion in the next manifesto, with implementation only if Labour won a new electoral mandate.

The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Doubts

However, Starmer has lately been damping it all down on the idea by warning rejoining an EU customs arrangement would “unravel” the trade pacts with America, which he regards as signature achievements of his premiership.

Reportedly that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.

1. First, he thinks any customs union agreement has been made significantly more difficult because his ministers busily de-aligning from European rules across a range of sectors, like environmental standards.
2. Secondly, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain to join a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure of negotiations has convinced British officials that European nations are less interested in cutting special deals to the UK than in proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is seen by key advisors in Downing Street as a reason for Britain to maintain distance from Europe.

An Alarming Document and Geopolitical Calculations

This strange and concerning document claims Europe faces “civilizational erasure” due to Muslim migration. It includes a single mention to Britain, placed beside a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration may interfere in British politics to foster the rise of nationalist movements.

However, instead of deciding that this makes America an unreliable partner, the government reportedly fear that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by endangering fragile US military support for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Leadership Speculation & The Ghost from the Past

All of which returns us to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not a pitch to become leader but merely an effort to keep open the “option” of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. Indeed, back then, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he currently seems to reject.

Observers within Downing Street note that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate for the leadership, is part of a clutch of cabinet ministers letting it be known they desire greater ambition regarding the EU.

Aides to Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a contest to replace Starmer, maintain she won’t discuss her stance regarding a customs pact because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Obvious Danger & A Wise Memory

The risk is clear. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters are to be found.

It would be wise for Starmer to recall the effect that a short phrase had for him in 2018. There are options for a major proposal on EU relations that the prime minister should not “rule out”; he should explore them personally, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.