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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.

Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."