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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.