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Industry experts have voiced deep caution regarding optimistic predictions that US large firms will swiftly commit vast sums of dollars to fix the country's broken energy sector.

Requirement of Solid Assurances

Without an solid promise of full reimbursement from the US federal government, specialists predict international firms to act with significant hesitation.

“It is too early to speculate on any upcoming plans,” a representative said recently.

The aggressive timeframe of less than 18 months has been publicly proposed. However, realistic assessments indicate a longer timeline.

A More Realistic Outlook

“Chances are going to take multiple years for any significant output increase,” noted an chief investment officer.

Experts believe energy firms would likely spend:

• Initial phase: Navigating new regulatory frameworks.
• Year two: Investing in rebuilding of equipment.
• Year three: Being able to boost production.

This would lead to an increase of around 500,000 barrels per day perhaps by late 2028.

Appetite Compared to Appetite for Investment

Experts make a key distinction between firms' attention and their willingness to spend significantly.

“I think their interest is an high score, on a range of one to 10. However, their appetite is a much lower, because there is no clarity yet.”

Veteran operators in the region share this caution. The thinking is that companies will publicly talk up the opportunity while privately moving with extreme caution.

The Enormous Investment Required

The financial bill would be enormous. Independent estimates suggest that adding between 500,000 and a million barrels per day would require over $10 billion in funding over two to three years.

However, rebuilding production to historical levels of around 2.5 million barrels per day could require a staggering $80 billion to $90 billion over many more years.

The Pending Question of Government Backing

The idea of oil giants being reimbursed by the US taxpayer has been repeatedly floated. Nevertheless, formal assurances on such a mechanism have so far not been forthcoming.

This lack of clarity is the primary impediment for the industry's reluctance. Operators seek safeguards against nationalization and the risk that a subsequent president could refuse any agreement.

“You need to be protected from political change, that we’ve experienced in Venezuela already.”

Therefore, while rhetorical confidence runs strong, the practical challenges suggest a journey of extreme caution for any major financial commitment in the Venezuelan energy industry.